Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, March 14, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.7 percent in January, after decreasing 0.1 percent in December and increasing 0.6 percent in November. All seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 109.6 (2004=100).

“January’s gain in the LEI suggests the near-term outlook for the economy keeps improving, despite the sideways movement in recent months,” said Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI’s suggested outlook parallels the consensus view of improving economic conditions in the Euro Area for 2014. However, with investment and export growth lagging, concern about the lack of productivity improvements remains and could impact the U.K. economy’s ability to sustain stronger growth.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in January, after increasing 0.2 percent in December and 0.1 percent in November. The index now stands at 105.8 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S..

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About The Conference Board

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