Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 15, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical
properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made
and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.5 percent in November, after increasing 0.4 percent in October and 1.6 percent in September. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 108.3 (2004=100).
“The fifth consecutive monthly advance by the U.K. LEI suggests that the economy will continue expanding and its pace could even pick up moderately in the first half of 2014,” says Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Widespread strength from production and job growth, along with sustained support from monetary policy, will add fuel to the recovery. Productivity, however, will remain the Achilles’ heel of Britain’s long-term growth performance, as reflected in The Conference Board’s latest release of productivity estimates, yesterday.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in November, after increasing 0.1 percent in October and 0.5 percent in September. The index now stands at 105.7 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K.aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
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