Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, November 12, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 1.5 percent in September, after increasing 1.2 percent in August and 0.7 percent in July. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 107.0 (2004=100).
“The improvements in the Leading Economic Index for the U.K. point towards continued economic growth in the months ahead,” says Bert Colijn, economist with The Conference Board. “The strength of the increase was widespread with contributions from the order book volume and consumer confidence especially strong. However, expectations about output growth remain subdued due to negative wage growth and sluggish global trade. Thus, growth is likely to remain slow going into 2014.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September, after remaining unchanged in August and increasing 0.2 percent in July. The index now stands at 104.9 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases: www.conference-board.org/data/
For more information: www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
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