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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, October 11, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 1.2 percent in August, after increasing 0.7 percent in July and decreasing 0.4 percent in June. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 105.4 (2004=100).

“The outlook for the U.K. continued to brighten in August, as the LEI increased markedly,” says Bert Colijn, Economist for Europe at The Conference Board. “The improvement among the indicators was widespread, with consumer confidence and order books volume as the strongest positive contributors. Optimism in the U.K. is increasing as the economy continues to stabilize. However, a substantial acceleration in economic growth in the months ahead seems unlikely as the global economic environment remains uncertain.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in August, after increasing 0.2 percent in July and 0.3 percent in June. The index now stands at 104.8 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:

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