Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, August 9, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.2 percent in June, after increasing 0.4 percent in May and increasing 0.2 percent in April. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 104.8 (2004=100).

“Despite the LEI’s slight decline in June, improvements in equity markets, business, and consumer sentiment in July suggest that the U.K. economic recovery is still ongoing. Both the LEI and the CEI are near their previous peak levels,” said Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “However, declines in income and employment so far this year demonstrate that labor markets may underperform relative to output over the short term after a long period of flat to negative productivity growth.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in June, after increasing 0.2 percent in May and decreasing 0.2 percent in April. The index now stands at 103.9 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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About The Conference Board

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