Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, July 12, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in May, after increasing 0.2 percent in April and 0.7 percent in March. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 105.0 (2004=100).

“The U.K. LEI rose again in May, led by business expectations and the yield spread,” said Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “However, the pace of improvement has been slower in April and May than in the beginning of the year, suggesting that while the recovery remains sustainable, growth is unlikely to strengthen. With the Euro Area still in contraction and emerging market growth slowing, domestic consumption, aided by the Bank of England’s long-term commitment to low interest rates, is likely to remain the primary source of near-term growth.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in May, after remaining unchanged in both April and March. The index now stands at 104.0 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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About The Conference Board

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