Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, February 12, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.1 percent in December, after an increase of 0.2 percent in November and a decline of 0.3 percent in October. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 103.5 (2004=100).
“December has produced another small increase in the Leading Economic Index for the U.K., led by positive contributions from consumer confidence and the yield spread,” says Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “Slow but continuous gains for the index through December are consistent with output growth probably returning to positive territory later in 2013. However, current economic conditions remain weak with real GDP contracting during the fourth quarter of 2012, although employment continued rising.”
Schaitkin adds, “The Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area has also picked up recently, and a stabilizing Euro Area economy could help economic activity in the U.K. to recover more quickly.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in December, after increasing 0.1 percent in both November and October. The index now stands at 104.3 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.