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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, November 9, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.2 percent in both September and August, after an increase of 0.1 percent in July. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 102.8 (2004=100).

“The moderate improvement in the September LEI was broad based and represented its third consecutive monthly increase. Despite this moderate gain, the economy, which was buoyed by temporary factors like the London Olympics, is likely to slow in the final quarter of this year,” says Brian Schaitkin, European Economist with The Conference Board. “Consumer and business expectations regarding future economic conditions have improved from a few months ago, but remain weak by historical standards. In addition, the CEI for the U.K., which measures current economic conditions, has also slowed since the first half of 2012.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in both September and August, after increasing 0.4 percent in July. The index now stands at 103.8 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

For more information:

For full press release:

NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in our indexes will now be provided by Haver Analytics. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact

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