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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, October 12, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.2 percent in August, after an increase of 0.1 percent in July, and a decrease of 0.3 percent in June. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.6 (2004=100).

“The recent improvement of the LEI for the United Kingdom, led by rising consumer confidence and stock prices, suggests that the contraction in economic output should stabilize in the near term,” says Brian Schaitkin, The Conference Board Economist for Europe. “However, on a six-month basis, the measure is still weakening, and robust growth is unlikely as long as economic weakness persists in the Euro Area. Also, while employment and income seems to be improving, GDP is still falling, making it difficult to assess current conditions in the U.K economy.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in August, after increasing 0.4 percent in July and 0.2 percent in June. The index stands at 103.8 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

For more information:

For full press release:

NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in our indexes will now be provided by Haver Analytics. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact

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