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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Wednesday, September 12, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.1 percent in July, after a decrease of 0.4 percent in June and a decrease of 1.0 percent in May. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 101.7 (2004=100).

“The LEI for the U.K. rose marginally in July as rising stock prices and consumer confidence offset continued pessimism from manufacturers. Despite this modest improvement, the economy is not likely to gather any momentum in the short term,” says Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe. “The leading indicators suggest that the sharp contraction in the second quarter abated in the third quarter. However, the Euro Area, its primary trading partner, remains in a recession and weak confidence levels will do little to improve the outlook in the coming months.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in July, after remaining unchanged in June and increasing 0.4 percent in May. All four of its components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 103.2 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in our indexes will now be provided by Haver Analytics. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact

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