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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, August 9, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.3 percent in June, after a decrease of 0.8 percent in May and an increase of 0.2 percent in April. Three of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 102.3 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the United Kingdom fell for a second consecutive month in June, but at a somewhat slower pace than in May. Its six-month growth rate remains in positive territory. Business confidence and stock prices remain the weak spots in the economy, but their pace of deterioration has eased, and the latest measures for July have even shown some improvement. While contractionary forces may have eased, the recent decline of the LEI highlights the headwinds the U.K. economy is currently facing. Overall, this pattern suggests that U.K. economic activity is unlikely to gain much momentum in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in June, after increasing by 0.3 percent in May and remaining unchanged in April. Three out of four of the components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 102.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

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