Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, July 13, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.8 percent in May, after an increase of 0.2 percent in April and an increase of 0.9 percent in March. Two of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.6 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the United Kingdom fell sharply in May as stock prices and business confidence nosedived. However, the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains in positive territory. Provided that conditions in the Euro Area do not worsen significantly, the trend in U.K. economic activity is unlikely to improve or deteriorate in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in May, after decreasing by 0.1 percent in April and increasing by 0.2 percent in March. All four of its components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.6 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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About The Conference Board

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