Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, June 14, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.2 percent in April, after an increase of 1.1 percent in March and an increase of 1.0 percent in February. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 104.0 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the United Kingdom rose for a fourth consecutive month in April, but at a significantly slower pace. Together with the CEI, it suggests that output growth may have stabilized after two successive quarters of contraction. However, the strength of any recovery in U.K. economic activity is likely to be modest in the near term, as long as the outlook for the Euro Area is deteriorating, as indicated by a weakening of the Euro Area LEI in April.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in April, after increasing by 0.2 percent in March and 0.1 percent in February. Two of the four components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

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About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.


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