Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 17, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.6 percent in November, after declines of 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. Two of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.5 (2004=100).
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The fourth consecutive decline of the LEI for the United Kingdom in November highlights the growing risk of the British economy following the lead of the Euro Area into a recession. However, if the economy begins to contract, the relative strength of services industries may counterbalance the gloom of the manufacturing sector and limit the magnitude and duration of the contraction.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in November, after increasing 0.1 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. The index stands at 102.4 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.