Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, November 10, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.3 percent in September, after decreasing 0.5 percent in August and increasing 0.3 percent in July. Two of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in September. The index stands at 103.7 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The second consecutive decline of the LEI for the United Kingdom signals a further deterioration of an already weak economic outlook. The stronger than expected output growth registered during the third quarter is unlikely to be repeated in the short term. Rising gloom among manufacturers may add to consumers’ pessimism and lead to sluggish or even negative growth between the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September, after decreasing 0.1 percent in both August and July. The index stands at 102.4 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)


Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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