Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, August 11, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. remained unchanged in June, after increasing 0.6 percent in May and increasing 0.3 percent in April. Three of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in June. The index stands at 104.1 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the United Kingdom was flat in June as the weaknesses among the leading indicators expanded. The rising caution among businesses is a particular concern, a trend that may weigh on already weak and volatile consumer confidence. The leading indicators suggest subdued growth in the near term. The ongoing debt crisis and the global slowdown will continue to feed a wait-and-see attitude, increasing the downside risks in an already sluggish growth environment.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in June, after remaining unchanged in May and increasing 0.1 percent in April. The index now stands at 102.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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