Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.5 percent in June to 103.0 (2004=100), following gains of 0.2 percent in May and 0.7 percent in April. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in June.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.

Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.

 Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The slight pick up in the LEI for the United Kingdom suggests that the recovery will continue. However, the positive contributions among the leading indicators have become less widespread recently, signaling slowing momentum.  The deterioration of consumer confidence, particularly with regard to the labor market, could exacerbate the impact of deficit reduction measures and, if sustained, will add an additional drag to growth in 2011.”

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising for more than a year now, though its six-month growth rate has moderated in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in June, after increasing by 0.3 percent in May and 0.3 percent in April. The index now stands at 103.1 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

 Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

 Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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 About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.