Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, December 10, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.K. increased by 1.0 percent in October to 96.5 (2004 = 100), following gains of 1.1 percent in both September and August. Consumer confidence, the yield spread and volume of expected output again made the largest positive contributions to the index.

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Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The strengthening and broadening improvement of the leading indicators for the United Kingdom point to economic activity moving back into positive territory. After lagging the Euro Area, the U.K. economy may finally begin closing the gap. Nonetheless, the recovery is still expected to be subdued."

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased for a seventh consecutive month in October after a long period of decline. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic IndexTM (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in both October and September, after declining 0.1 percent in August. The index now stands at 102.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group) Yield Spread (source: Bank of England) Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eight other countries, including the U.S., Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Australia, Korea and Mexico.

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About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.