Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, October 8, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.K. increased by 0.9 percent in August to 94.0 (2004 = 100), following gains of 0.5 percent in July and 1.1 percent in June. Stock prices, the yield spread, volume of expected output and consumer confidence made the largest positive contributions to the index.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.

Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "Despite its fifth consecutive monthly increase, the improvement in the LEI for the United Kingdom remains milder than that in the Euro Area LEI. The recovery in economic activity in the U.K. is likely to arrive later and may be even weaker than the recovery expected in the Euro Area in the near future."

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased for a fifth consecutive month in August after a long period of decline. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in August, after remaining unchanged in both July and June. The index now stands at 102.3 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eight other countries, including the U.S., Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Australia, Korea and Mexico.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2009 indicator releases:

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About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.


Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

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