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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, April 9, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.K. declined 0.6 percent in February to 92.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent fall in January and a 0.7 percent drop in December. Order book volume, stock prices and consumer confidence made the largest negative contributions to the index, more than offsetting a positive contribution from the yield spread.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.

Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has declined for 16 consecutive months. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in February, after remaining unchanged in January and increasing 0.2 percent in December. The coincident economic index now stands at 104.1 (2004 = 100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The massive and unprecedented measures taken by the authorities have yet to make their full impact felt across the whole economy. For the time being, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the United Kingdom does not provide any recovery signal. Including its decrease of 0.6 percent in February 2009, the index has dropped more than 11.5 percent since its most recent peak in June 2007, which is more severe than its downturns in 2000 and 1998."

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eight countries, including the U.S., Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Australia, Korea and Mexico.

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