Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, February 14, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. was unchanged, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in December.
- The leading index was unchanged in December, but the strength in the leading index continued to be widespread as a large negative contribution from the volume of expected output component was offset by the positive contributions from the remaining components of the leading index in December. The growth rate of the leading index has slowed to a 0.0-1.0 percent annual rate in the second half of 2004, down from the 6.0-7.0 percent growth rate reached in early 2004.
- The coincident index increased slightly again in December, and it has been on a flat to gradually rising trend for the last several years. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the second half of 2004 (including a 3.0 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2004), down slightly from a 3.5 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that this recent economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Seven of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence, productivity for the whole economy*, the fixed interest price index, order book volume, stock prices, new orders for engineering industries*, and operating surplus of corporations*. Volume of expected output declined in December.
Holding steady in December, the leading index now stands at 133.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading index increased 0.1 percent, with five of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 68.8 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment*, real household disposable income*, and industrial production. Retail sales declined in December.
With the 0.1 percent increase in December, the coincident index now stands at 115.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on February 11, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.