Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, November 7, 2002

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. decreased 0.1 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in September.

  • Modest gains in the majority of the leading index components were offset by large declines in book volume orders and stock prices in September. This resulted in the third decline in the leading index in four months.
  • The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, continued its positive growth in September. For the second consecutive month, industrial production is the only component that is hindering a more robust performance of the index.

Leading Indicators.

Five of the nine components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are new orders for engineering industries*, consumer confidence, productivity of the whole economy*, the fixed interest price index, and volume of expected output. The three negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - were order book volume, stock prices, and house building starts*. Operating surplus of corporations* remained unchanged in September.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in September, the leading index now stands at 124.6 (1990=100). This index increased 0.4 percent in August and decreased 0.7 percent in July. During the six-month span through August, the leading index increased 0.9 percent, and five of the nine components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 55.6 percent).

Coincident Indicators.

Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors include real household disposable income*, employment*, and retail sales. Only industrial production decreased in September.

Increasing 0.1 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 113.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

Data Availability.

The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on November 6, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are the house building starts, new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.