Global Business Cycle Indicators

UK

Press Release Archive

Released: Wednesday, August 21, 2002

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. decreased 0.5 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in July.

  • The leading index decreased in July after seven months of consecutive increases. Although this month's decrease is widespread among its components, the sharp decline in the index is largely due to declines in stock prices, real money supply, and consumer confidence.
  • The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, continues to increase in July. Moreover, the strength in the coincident index is widespread among its components as shown by its six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of components that are rising, remaining above 50 over the last year.

Leading Indicators. Six of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, money supply*, change in consumer confidence, new orders for engineering industries*, housing starts*, and change in inventories*. Export order book volume held steady in July. Inverted bond yields increased. (For details see Data Availability section and Tables).

With the 0.5 percent decrease in July, the leading index now stands at 116.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in June and increased 0.3 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, and seven of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).

Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smaller - are industrial production*, real households' disposable income*, retail sales*, and the inverted unemployment rate. (For details see Data Availability section and Tables).

Increasing 0.3 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 113.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in June and increased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components making advances (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on August 19, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are the CPI deflator for money supply, changes in inventories, new orders in engineering industries, and housing starts. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real household disposable income, industrial production, and retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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