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Released: Thursday, November 21, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.9 percent in October. The index stands at 176.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent decline in September and a 1.9 percent decline in August. Seven of the eight components contributed positively to the index in October.

The LEI increase in October was widespread, indicating that India’s economic conditions may be stabilizing,” said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. “However, high inflation persists, leaving little room for monetary easing. Additionally, recent improvements have been export-driven while domestic demand remains weak suggesting that the below-trend rate of economic growth will likely continue into early 2014.”   

Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Recent policy actions, especially by the Reserve Bank of India, have contributed to a slightly better short-term outlook. However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve Board beginning its delayed tapering of quantitative easing in the coming months, and India lacking any significant growth-enhancing reforms ahead of the looming elections, GDP growth will only marginally improve to 4.4 percent in 2014 versus 4.2 percent in 2013.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in October to 205.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent decline in September and a 0.2 percent increase in August. Two of the four components contributed positively to the index in October.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India  

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

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About The Conference Board

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