Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, June 17, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 1.5 percent in May. The index now stands at 121.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in both April and March. Two of the eight components contributed positively to the index in May.
Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.
“Increasingly deteriorating business and consumer expectations as well as economic and political uncertainties leading up to the World Cup events have been taking a toll on the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil,” said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. “Although employment and consumption are still holding up and the external sector improved in May, the persistent weakness in the LEI and the Coincident Economic Index point to a very sluggish pace of economic activity with increased volatility in the second half of the year.”
Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, “The LEI for Brazil sharply declined in May, following more moderate declines in the previous four months. Persistent and widespread weaknesses among the leading indicators have now pushed the six-month growth rate of the LEI more deeply into negative territory. The deterioration in the LEI points to continued below-trend growth for 2014, which is likely to drop further from 2013 to the range of 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in May at 128.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April and a 0.5 decline in March. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in May.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA – Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in
the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
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