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Released: Monday, September 24, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.7 percent in August to 240.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.1 percent increase in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.

Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.7 percent in August to 240.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.1 percent increase in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The improvement in the China LEI in August raises expectations for a moderate rebound in growth, even as current economic conditions remain subdued. The LEI’s largest increase in seven months was primarily due to a rebound in real estate activity, with strong credit growth and an improvement in consumer expectations also adding to the uptick. The manufacturing and trade sectors continued to underperform. Despite the somewhat improved outlook, recent LEI trends suggest the rebound in real estate may be tenuous and uncertainty around credit-led growth remains a concern.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 223.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July and a 0.9 percent increase in June. All five components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China  

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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