Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, June 15, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.2 percent in April to 154.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in March and a 0.1 percent decline in February. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “The China LEI’s recent slower trend is consistent with more moderate growth in economic activity in coming months. The LEI for China has increased modestly in the early months of 2011, supported by expansion in credit and construction activity despite weakness in consumer expectations and production indicators. Cooler economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe have also contributed to weaker conditions for the export sector since the beginning of the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.3 percent in April to 201.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in March and a 0.6 percent increase in February. All five components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at
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