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Released: Monday, November 15, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.6 percent in September to 150.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in August and a 0.8 percent increase in July. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.

Says William Adams, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business: “Continued gains in the China LEI suggest the economy is likely to expand steadily through early 2011. However, weakening consumer sentiment and tighter monetary policy may be a concern going forward.  The Consumer Expectations component has declined for three consecutive months through September. In addition, the Total Loans component of the LEI grew more slowly in September over August, reflecting tighter credit conditions.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in September to 191.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in August and a 0.5 percent increase in July.  Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in September.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at