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Global Business Cycle Indicators


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Released: Wednesday, July 14, 2010

NOTE: This release incorporates a technical adjustment to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China. The PMI Manufacturing Supplier Delivery component is now inverted for inclusion in the LEI; it previously was included in its as-published form. This adjustment has a small impact on the index back to 2005, when the component first became available; the prior history is only marginally affected. It does not impact the LEI’s historical trend or The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China. For further details, please refer to the technical notes that accompany this release:, or contact us at:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.8 percent in May to 145.8 (2004 = 100), following no change in April and a 0.7 percent increase in March. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in May.

Said Bill Adams, resident economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “After a brief pause in April, the LEI for China continues its moderate upward trend, signaling solid but less robust growth in the second half of the year. Zero growth in April was largely due to declines in Total Floor Space Started and Consumer Expectations; now the index is back on trend. Strengths and weaknesses among the component indicators have been largely balanced over the six months to May. Our corresponding measure of China’s current economic conditions has been growing steadily, bolstering the picture of continuing growth. However, indicators for the manufacturing sector suggest an easing of industrial output growth in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.9 percent in May to 184.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in April and a 0.5 percent increase in March. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index this month.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China.  Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.

 About The Conference Board

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