Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, March 27, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.1 percent in February and now stands at 106.5 (2004=100), after increasing 1.3 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December 2012.
“The LEI for the Euro Area increased very marginally in February, at a much slower pace than in January,” said Bert Colijn, Economist for Europe at The Conference Board. “Despite recent improvements in the index, considerable uncertainty about the timing and strength of any recovery remains.
“Financial instability, credit constraints, and the drag from austerity programs in many European countries will continue to pose risks to a short-term recovery. However, with this week’s Cyprus bailout, more collateral damage to the financial system has been avoided, at least for now.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in February, according to preliminary estimates. The index now stands at 101.1 (2004 = 100)*. The CEI was unchanged in January and decreased 0.1 percent in December 2012.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2013 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.