Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, October 26, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area decreased 0.4 percent in September, and now stands at 104.9 (2004=100), after increasing 0.5 percent in August and 0.1 percent in July.
“The Euro Area LEI declined in September for the fourth time in six months, further suggesting that a sustained recovery is unlikely in the near term,” says Bert Colijn, The Conference Board Economist for Europe. “Expectations in the service sector declined and point to contraction, like manufacturing confidence, although the latter seems to have bottomed out somewhat. Overall sentiment about the European economy remains negative, despite a strengthening in equity markets since midyear. Optimism based on measures designed to contain the financial crisis are not translating into a positive outlook for the European economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in September. The index now stands at 102.3 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI increased 0.1 percent in both August and July.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2012 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in both The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area will now be provided by Haver Analytics, and not Thomson Reuters DataStream. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes. For more information about these changes please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.