Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, July 18, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in June, remaining at 95.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May, and a 0.8 percent increase in April.
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI was flat in June. Declines in building permits, new orders and stock prices were offset by gains in consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and other financial indicators. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains positive, suggesting the economy will continue expanding through the end of the year.”
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Some segments of the economy are turning around faster than others, resulting in positive but moderate growth. The biggest uncertainties remain the pace of business spending, the improvements in consumer spending power and the impact of slower global growth on U.S. exports.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in June to 105.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in June to 119.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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