Global Business Cycle Indicators

US

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, April 19, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in March to 95.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI increased for the sixth consecutive month, pointing to a more positive outlook despite subdued consumer expectations and weakness in manufacturing new orders. Moreover, the six-month growth rate of the LEI continues to improve. The CEI, a measure of current economic conditions, has also increased in five of the last six months, with broad based gains in all components.”

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Despite relatively weak data on jobs, home building and output in the past month or two, the indicators signal continued economic momentum. We expect a gradual improvement in growth past the summer months.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in March to 104.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in March to 114.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and a 0.6 percent increase in January.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials

ISM Index of New Orders

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Leading Credit Index™

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

 

For full press release and technical notes:
www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
www.conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

Straight Talk September 2016

Global Economic Outlook 2016

Good news is hard to find

Economic growth at only 1.0 percent annualized growth in the first half of 2016 was weaker than the current potential GDP growth rate estimated at 1.5 – 2 percent. The second half of 2016 is estimated slightly above that trend at 2.2 percent.

Read the article
Archives