This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018 which includes growth projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 36 emerging market economies for 2018–2022, and 2023–2027. The projections are based on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the contributions of the use of factor inputs (labor and capital) and total factor productivity growth to the growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While labor input growth rates are estimated using data on demographic changes and workforce participation rates, capital input and total factor productivity growth are econometrically estimated using a wide range of related variables during past periods. The resulting trend growth rates for the period 2018–2022 are adjusted for possible deviations between actual and potential output in the short run.
This working paper is complimentary.