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Leading Through Uncertainty Blogs

Makes decisive decisions and implements business strategies despite uncertainty. Leads through change, acting without perfect information, adjusting as needed to changing conditions.


  1. Recession Signals from the UK Leading Economic Index
    Is a recession on the horizon in the UK? The short answer to this question is: yes. The probability of a recession in the near term has risen substantially. The UK business cycle is maturing and the lack of certainty around Brexit makes it difficult for consumers and businesses to make plans about the future. These are the ingredients that recessions are made of. The long answer requires an in-depth (and wonkish) analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the UK.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, July 2018)

  2. Op-Ed: We May be Missing the Productivity Revival in the Global Economy
    Policymakers returned home from last month’s spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF with a clear message. The current short-term outlook provides no guarantee for sustained economic growth in the medium-term. Not surprisingly the word “productivity” therefore appears many times in this edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. Productivity growth will be one of the most effective ways to prevent the recent upswing in global growth from slowing down prematurely.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, May 2018)

  3. Will China Out-Innovate the World
    China has recognized the need to put its giant economy on a path toward developing an innovation culture, an initiative that could position it to challenge the U.S. as a global leader of innovation. But despite a massive investment in research and development, the nation faces some significant barriers to reaching its goal.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, April 2018)

  4. Tariffs or no tariffs, the pickup in global trade won’t last
    Slow trade growth will be the dominant feature of the world economy in the coming decade, not because of the latest tariff dispute between the US and China, but because of three longer-term trends, argue Ilaria Maselli and Ataman Ozyildirim.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, April 2018)

  5. Long Expansions Do Not Alone Halt Fast Job Creation
    At the outset of 2017, many economists were concerned by the possibility that tighter labor markets would act to slow employment growth. Perhaps labor shortages will trigger the next recession as firms will cut back production in reaction to rising costs. Right now though the LEI is still signaling good economic times ahead. A long period of frustration with talent shortages and rising labor costs would likely be required for labor alone to be the next black swan.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, April 2018)

  6. A State-Level View of 2017 Consumption Patterns
    The Conference Board provides a state level view of 2017 consumption patterns, using their nowcasts of nominal PCE growth by state.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, March 2018)

  7. Emerging Markets In 2018: Six Signs To Watch
    Following a largely successful 2017, emerging markets could very well continue making strong economic progress in 2018. This year, it’s evident the growth of many developing economies will hinge on six main factors.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, January 2018)


  1. CEOs Must Do These 3 Things To Turbocharge Innovation
    Across the globe, one business challenge has the ear of CEOs like few others: innovation. Six in 10 surveyed executives think the chance to avoid falling behind their competitors has passed. Much of the anxiety from today’s business environment ties back to their commitment – or lack thereof – to innovation.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, November 2017)

  2. 10 Takeaways from the 2017 Lisboa Web Summit
    Earlier this month, I had the privilege of attending the renowned Web Summit in Lisboa. While this four-day festival of ideas produced an endless stream of takeaways, here are my top ten...
    (Global Economy Center Blog, November 2017)

  3. What’s in Store for Emerging Markets?
    Looking ahead, the outlook for emerging markets during the second half remains solid. However, whether growth can accelerate much beyond the first half is probably a long shot.
    (Global Economy Center Blog, August 2017)