Is the China slowdown over? Many analysts think China has had a “soft landing” that will yield about 8 percent annual growth for the next decade. We disagree. Absent reforms that resolve China’s productivity and debt challenges, we expect a “soft fall” to growth of about 4 percent by 2020, including negative growth for certain sectors and regions. While there is tremendous potential for reform, political economy challenges make bold action difficult. Our research provides guidance for companies looking to optimize investment and sustain growth.
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