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29 Mar. 2019 | Comments (0)

The Conference Board started the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in 1967. In February 2009, at the nadir of the financial crisis, the Index reached an all-time low of 25.3 points (1985=100). Over the next decade, an arduous recovery slowly took root to produce a historic expansion. By October 2018, consumer confidence had climbed to 137.9—just points away from the all-time high reached in 2000.   

Since then, however, things have become murkier and more volatile. After a 7.3-point drop in March 2019, consumer confidence now stands at 124.1. Consumers’ appraisal of the present situation has taken an especially big hit. Is this an expected moderation or an early warning of impeding recession?

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators and surveys, examines the evidence.

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