Recession Signals from the UK Leading Economic Index
July 13 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Andre Therrien | Comments (0)
Is a recession on the horizon in the UK? The short answer to this question is: yes. The probability of a recession in the near term has risen substantially. The UK business cycle is maturing and the lack of certainty around Brexit makes it difficult for consumers and businesses to make plans about the future. These are the ingredients that recessions are made of. The long answer requires an in-depth (and wonkish) analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the UK.
Op-Ed: We May be Missing the Productivity Revival in the Global Economy
May 09 | Bart van Ark, Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Policymakers returned home from last month’s spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF with a clear message. The current short-term outlook provides no guarantee for sustained economic growth in the medium-term. Not surprisingly the word “productivity” therefore appears many times in this edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. Productivity growth will be one of the most effective ways to prevent the recent upswing in global growth from slowing down prematurely.
Will China Out-Innovate the World
April 25 | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Xiaohui (Janet) Hao, Ph.D., Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
China has recognized the need to put its giant economy on a path toward developing an innovation culture, an initiative that could position it to challenge the U.S. as a global leader of innovation. But despite a massive investment in research and development, the nation faces some significant barriers to reaching its goal.
Tariffs or no tariffs, the pickup in global trade won’t last
April 09 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Slow trade growth will be the dominant feature of the world economy in the coming decade, not because of the latest tariff dispute between the US and China, but because of three longer-term trends, argue Ilaria Maselli and Ataman Ozyildirim.
Long Expansions Do Not Alone Halt Fast Job Creation
April 03 | Brian Schaitkin, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
At the outset of 2017, many economists were concerned by the possibility that tighter labor markets would act to slow employment growth. Perhaps labor shortages will trigger the next recession as firms will cut back production in reaction to rising costs. Right now though the LEI is still signaling good economic times ahead. A long period of frustration with talent shortages and rising labor costs would likely be required for labor alone to be the next black swan.
A State-Level View of 2017 Consumption Patterns
March 05 | Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
The Conference Board provides a state level view of 2017 consumption patterns, using their nowcasts of nominal PCE growth by state.