The Risk of a UK Recession is Growing
September 18 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Continued uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit negotiations is not helping. Unemployment in the UK now stands at its lowest level in four decades. Gross domestic product growth at the start of the third quarter of 2018 also shows an economy in decent shape, having grown faster than in the prior two quarters.
Recession Signals from the UK Leading Economic Index
July 13 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Andre Therrien | Comments (0)
Is a recession on the horizon in the UK? The short answer to this question is: yes. The probability of a recession in the near term has risen substantially. The UK business cycle is maturing and the lack of certainty around Brexit makes it difficult for consumers and businesses to make plans about the future. These are the ingredients that recessions are made of. The long answer requires an in-depth (and wonkish) analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the UK.
Op-Ed: We May be Missing the Productivity Revival in the Global Economy
May 09 | Bart van Ark, Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer. Program Director, CFO Council: Fortune 250, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Policymakers returned home from last month’s spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF with a clear message. The current short-term outlook provides no guarantee for sustained economic growth in the medium-term. Not surprisingly the word “productivity” therefore appears many times in this edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. Productivity growth will be one of the most effective ways to prevent the recent upswing in global growth from slowing down prematurely.
Tariffs or no tariffs, the pickup in global trade won’t last
April 09 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Slow trade growth will be the dominant feature of the world economy in the coming decade, not because of the latest tariff dispute between the US and China, but because of three longer-term trends, argue Ilaria Maselli and Ataman Ozyildirim.
Emerging Markets In 2018: Six Signs To Watch
January 30 | Abdul Erumban, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Following a largely successful 2017, emerging markets could very well continue making strong economic progress in 2018. This year, it’s evident the growth of many developing economies will hinge on six main factors.
CEOs Must Do These 3 Things To Turbocharge Innovation
November 29 | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, The Conference Board | Victor Assad | Comments (0)
Across the globe, one business challenge has the ear of CEOs like few others: innovation. Six in 10 surveyed executives think the chance to avoid falling behind their competitors has passed. Much of the anxiety from today’s business environment ties back to their commitment – or lack thereof – to innovation.