Indications 2.8: Debt, Denial, and Modern Monetary Theory
April 02 | Indications Podcast | Comments (0)
According to the IMF, total debt worldwide—including government, consumer, financial, and non-financial sources—now amounts to $185 trillion, or some 2.25 times the size of global GDP. A generation ago, the ratio stood at just 1:1. But despite this rapid rise in leverage, the traditional dangers of government debt in particular—soaring inflation and interest rates—have yet to materialize.
Indications 2.6. Taking the Temperature of the Global Consumer
January 31 | Indications Podcast | Comments (0)
Around the world, business leaders are growing increasingly nervous about 2019 growth prospects. Are consumers following suit? Ultimately, the answer will come down to job availability, income growth incomes, and the purchasing power of their hard-earned money.
Why are labor markets for blue-collar workers tighter than for white-collar ones?
October 16 | Gad Levanon, Ph.D., Chief Economist, North America, The Conference Board | Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
The labor shortages in blue-collar jobs are unlikely to disappear any time soon. An important reason: The combination of the US population becoming more educated and the concentration of disability among less educated people is significantly reducing the share of less educated people in the labor force.
The Risk of a UK Recession is Growing
September 18 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Continued uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit negotiations is not helping. Unemployment in the UK now stands at its lowest level in four decades. Gross domestic product growth at the start of the third quarter of 2018 also shows an economy in decent shape, having grown faster than in the prior two quarters.
Recession Signals from the UK Leading Economic Index
July 13 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Economic Research, and Global Research Chair, The Conference Board | Andre Therrien | Comments (0)
Is a recession on the horizon in the UK? The short answer to this question is: yes. The probability of a recession in the near term has risen substantially. The UK business cycle is maturing and the lack of certainty around Brexit makes it difficult for consumers and businesses to make plans about the future. These are the ingredients that recessions are made of. The long answer requires an in-depth (and wonkish) analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the UK.
Financial Times Op-Ed: We May be Missing the Productivity Revival in the Global Economy
May 09 | Bart van Ark, Executive Vice President & Global Chief Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Policymakers returned home from last month’s spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF with a clear message. The current short-term outlook provides no guarantee for sustained economic growth in the medium-term. Not surprisingly the word “productivity” therefore appears many times in this edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. Productivity growth will be one of the most effective ways to prevent the recent upswing in global growth from slowing down prematurely.
Will China Out-Innovate the World
April 25 | Ataman Ozyildirim, Ph.D., Director, Economic Research, and Global Research Chair, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
China has recognized the need to put its giant economy on a path toward developing an innovation culture, an initiative that could position it to challenge the U.S. as a global leader of innovation. But despite a massive investment in research and development, the nation faces some significant barriers to reaching its goal.