Currency Wars: What a CEO Should Prepare For
August 13 | Bart van Ark, Executive Vice President & Chief Economist, The Conference Board | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
In the coming months, global executives could find themselves trying to navigate an international currency market wherein both the USD and the RMB are competing in a ‘how low can you go’ devaluation game. This new battleground, if it fully manifests, could be more detrimental and problematic for global businesses than anything we’ve seen from the tariffs to date.
The Conference Board: Grab a Deal This Weekend Because Prices are Headed Higher from Tariffs
May 24 | Steve Odland, President and CEO, The Conference Board, Inc. | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
American retailers are working hard to leverage this Memorial Day weekend to boost sales. Heavyweights like Amazon, Target, Macy’s, and Home Depot all have big promotional plans to accomplish this.
Indications 2.8: Debt, Denial, and Modern Monetary Theory
April 02 | Indications Podcast | Comments (0)
According to the IMF, total debt worldwide—including government, consumer, financial, and non-financial sources—now amounts to $185 trillion, or some 2.25 times the size of global GDP. A generation ago, the ratio stood at just 1:1. But despite this rapid rise in leverage, the traditional dangers of government debt in particular—soaring inflation and interest rates—have yet to materialize.
Indications 2.6. Taking the Temperature of the Global Consumer
January 31 | Indications Podcast | Comments (0)
Around the world, business leaders are growing increasingly nervous about 2019 growth prospects. Are consumers following suit? Ultimately, the answer will come down to job availability, income growth incomes, and the purchasing power of their hard-earned money.
Why are labor markets for blue-collar workers tighter than for white-collar ones?
October 16 | Gad Levanon, PhD, Chief Economist, North America, The Conference Board | Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
The labor shortages in blue-collar jobs are unlikely to disappear any time soon. An important reason: The combination of the US population becoming more educated and the concentration of disability among less educated people is significantly reducing the share of less educated people in the labor force.
The Risk of a UK Recession is Growing
September 18 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Continued uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit negotiations is not helping. Unemployment in the UK now stands at its lowest level in four decades. Gross domestic product growth at the start of the third quarter of 2018 also shows an economy in decent shape, having grown faster than in the prior two quarters.
Recession Signals from the UK Leading Economic Index
July 13 | Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)
Is a recession on the horizon in the UK? The short answer to this question is: yes. The probability of a recession in the near term has risen substantially. The UK business cycle is maturing and the lack of certainty around Brexit makes it difficult for consumers and businesses to make plans about the future. These are the ingredients that recessions are made of. The long answer requires an in-depth (and wonkish) analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the UK.