Driving Down Growth? (Asia Time Zones)
Decoding China’s 12th Five Year Plan and Anticipating its Impact for MNCs in China
15 September, 2011 | (01 hr)
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Unique among world leaders, Premier Wen Jiabao has promised to reduce growth over the next 5 year period. Both the reliability of this message and its likely impact are encoded into the Twelfth Five Year plan (“12-5”), ratified on March 5th by the NPC. 12-5 is a substantive and serious internal message that gives insight into China’s investment and operating environment in the coming years. The 118 plan is gangly and unfocused precisely because it incorporates the gamut of Party thinking – from the retrograde through to the vanguard. It takes effort to sieve through the chaff and rhetoric to distill out the essential points, but sense can be made of it, and there is an internal logic that is illuminating.
12-5 is, at heart, a carefully crafted message to the Party, government and Chinese business community as to what commercial behaviors will be rewarded going forward and the parameters of “compliance”. But which of the Plan’s myriad directives and goals are considered to be high, medium, and low priority – which are absolute and which are more-or-less vacant? How will the ideological aspirations of the plan mesh with the structural realities of the market? What components of the plan will influence local partners and regulatory actors, and how? How can MNCs best align with and leverage the plan to favorably shape their operating environment?
Audience: Executives in companies operating in China and globally who are interested in the impact of China’s policies on business practices and trends.
Nicholas Sutcliffe is the executive director of The Conference Board for Asia-Pacifi c. He is responsible for the strategic development and growth of The Conference Board operations within the region and also shares responsibility for enhancing th... Full Bio
David R. Hoffman is vice president and managing director of The Conference Board China Center. Based in Beijing, Hoffman is responsible for the center’s strategy, research agenda, research program delivery, partner relationships with Chinese... Full Bio