Real estate bubbles in the U.S and Europe helped trigger the global recession beginning in 2007 and reaching a crescendo in 2008-2009.  Real estate markets in developed economies continue to struggle and form an ongoing drag on recovery.  At the same time worrisome housing bubbles in China and other emerging economies have the potential to derail these countries’ ongoing growth, on which the global economy depends.  Will the US housing market turn around any time soon?  Will the dangerously overheated real estate markets in China and other emerging economies threaten their growth and what are the potential risks to the fragile global recovery?

Audience:

Executives in planning, strategy, international operations and economists.

Series Host

Kathy Bostjancic Director for Macroeconomic Analysis The Conference Board Kathy Bostjancic is director for macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board. A specialist in the U.S. economy and financial markets, she is a member of the team that produces the U.S. economic forecast and global outlook for The Conference Boa... Full Bio

Housing Markets: The Continuing Story of Bubble and Bust (Part 1)

PART 1: The Role of Housing Markets in Global Economic Boom, Bust and Recovery

13 January, 2011 | ()

Widespread speculation in the global housing market earlier this decade drove home prices sharply higher propelled economic growth in many developed economies beyond what underlying economic fundamentals justified.  Once home prices began to level off and subsequently tank, developed economies quickly slipped into the “Great Recession.”  The overhang of the housing bubble continues to weigh negatively on current economic activity and has led the Federal Reserve to resort to more quantitative easing (QE2).  What does the near-term outlook hold for the housing market and global recovery?

Housing Markets: The Continuing Story of Bubble and Bust (Part 2)

PART 2: Developed Economies: Does Anyone See a Sustainable Housing Recovery?

20 January, 2011 | ()

Have home prices in the developed economies found a bottom, or is there a likelihood of further price declines?  What factors will influence the recovery of the housing market?  What is the outlook for housing in the medium-term and what role does it play in the global recovery.  Could a relapse in the housing market send the developed economies back into recession?

Speakers

Robert J. Shiller Professor of Economics Yale University Professor of Finance and Fellow International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management Robert Shiller has written on financial markets, financial innovation, behavioral economics, macroeconomics, real estate, statistical methods, and on public attitudes, opinions, and moral judgments regarding markets. His book Irrational Exuber... Full Bio

Housing Markets: The Continuing Story of Bubble and Bust (Part 3)

PART 3: China: Construction on Steroids – What are the Risks?

27 January, 2011 | ()

China is the leading economic engine pulling the global economy. In addition to its industrial growth, China is experiencing a spectacular boom in real estate construction with prices that continue to escalate, reaching record levels in 2010.  Signs point to a huge and potentially dangerous property bubble in residential real estate, particularly in tier one cities.  Does this furious growth mask underlying weakness in the economy?  Is the boom the result of China’s rapid and massive urbanization or are prices being propped up by developers and government policies that are focusing on luxury projects priced far beyond the means of the masses migrating to the cities? How sustainable is this growth? What would be the effect of a real estate bust on China’s economy?  Could it trigger another global economic slowdown?

Speakers

William Adams Senior International Economist The PNC Financial Services Group William (Bill) Adams is assistant vice president and senior international economist for The PNC Financial Services Group. His responsibilities include forecasting economic conditions and exchange rates, covering emerging Asia, the European Union, ... Full Bio