KnowlEdge Series

Escaping the Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Is There a Way Out?

Sovereign debt and fiscal deficits are strangling the United States and other advanced economies. The U.S. – the world’s biggest economy – has a federal government deficit that is running at 10 percent of GDP, and many advanced countries approach or even surpass this.  Policy choices are complex, but there are escape strategies which are based on a combination of growth-friendly policies and moderate budget cuts rather than draconian austerity projects or risky debt-financed stimulus. 

This series of programs will present a thoughtful conversation on the policies that help revive growth.  When is austerity called for and when is more stimulus in order?  How big should government be, and what should it invest in?  What is the appropriate level of debt to GDP? What will stimulate job growth?  How can we make productivity an important growth driver? And what government policies will inspire confidence in the bond holders who are needed to fund maturing debt and fiscal deficits until the crisis resolves?

Please join The Conference Board’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Bart vanArk as he engages a distinguished group of guests in a serious in-depth discussion of how countries can align their policies with growth principles that will allow them to eventually escape the seemingly insurmountable debt they have accumulated.  Guests include Nobel Prize economist Gary S. Becker, distinguished economist and MacArthur Fellow Kevin M. Murphy and Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director of BRUEGEL (Brussels European and Global Economic Laboratory).  The three-part series will be co-hosted by Stephen Sexauer, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Global Investors Solutions who, with Bart vanArk, has developed a productivity and spending framework that offers the promise of returning debt-to-GDP levels to a sustainable point over time.

Audience:  Senior corporate executives in planning, strategy, and international operations, economists and policy makers.

PART 1: A Framework for Growth-Driven Reduction in Debt-to-GDP… view details

25 May, 2011 11:00 AM EST [11:00] | (1 hr)

In this first part of the series we introduce a possible escape strategy from the current debt and deficit situation. Professors Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy will address the dominant variable to successfully resolving a debt-to-GDP crisis:  Sustained economic growth.  

• What do growth policies look like?
• When and how do budget cuts impact on economic growth? Do “smart” budget cuts exist?
• How much worse are tax increases relative to budget cuts, and who suffers most?
• What helps and hurts productivity growth most?
• Why should business care?

Speakers

Gary S. Becker University Professor in Economics, Booth School of Business, and Sociology University of Chicago Gary S. Becker, who won the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economic Science in 1992, is recognized for his expertise in human capital, economics of the family, and economic analysis of crime, discrimination, and population. He received the National Meda... Full Bio

Kevin M. Murphy The George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor in Economics Booth School of Business and the Law School, University of Chicago Kevin M. Murphy is the first professor at a business school to be chosen as a MacArthur Fellow in the 25 years that the awards have been given. He was selected for "revealing economic forces shaping vital social phenomena such as wage inequality, ... Full Bio

PART 2: Can Europe’s Ailing Economies be Rescued?… view details

02 June, 2011 11:00 AM EST [11:00] | (1 hr)

In this second part we look at the complexity of the European deficit and debt situation. How do the large +aggressively tackle the debt problem?

• Are the deficit and debt problems in Europe really worse than in the U.S., or just different?
• How does slower trend growth in Europe impact on the ability to resolve the debt crisis
• Do differences in capital market institutions matter?
• What impact on the dollar-euro exchange rates from different strategies?

Speakers

Jean Pisani-Ferry Director BRUEGEL (Brussels European and Global Economic Laboratory) Professor of Economics Université Paris-Dauphine Pisani-Ferry has made his career in research and policy. After having held positions in research and government in France, he joined the European Commission in 1989 as economic advisor to the Director-General of DG ECFIN. From 1992 to 1997 he was ... Full Bio

PART 3: Finding the Political Will: An Impossible Task?… view details

09 June, 2011 11:00 AM EST [11:00] | (1 hr)

In the final part of this series we take look at the policy context in which the balancing of growth and budget control takes place. In particular, what issues does “the Hill” have on the table, and what difference will it make to budget and debt?

• What is the impact of government budgeting activities on business activity. Which items are in particular affected?
• Can government support or facilitate growth?
• What game-changes are on the table?
• Will the U.S. economy lose competitiveness as a result of new policy measures?

Speakers

Pete Davis Advisor The Conference Board President Davis Capital Investment Ideas Pete Davis advises Wall Street money managers on Washington policy developments that affect the financial markets. President of his own consulting firm since 1992, Davis Capital Investment Ideas, Pete draws on 11 years of experience as a Capitol H... Full Bio

Series Host

	Bart van Ark Executive Vice President & Chief Economist The Conference Board Bart van Ark is executive vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board. He leads a team of almost two dozen economists who produce a range of widely watched economic indicators and growth forecasts, as well as indepth global economic... Full Bio
	Stephen Sexauer Chief Investment Officer Allianz Global Investors Solutions Stephen Sexauer has been the Chief Investment Officer of AGI Solutions since inception in June, 2008, and has been a Managing Director of Allianz Global Investors of America LLC or one of its subsidiaries since May, 2003.  Mr. Sexauer has ove... Full Bio