China Center Chart of the Week: Assessing local debt risks and opportunities – regional debt and real estate dynamics
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This special China Center Chart of the Week depicts China’s debt buildup over the past several years and highlights some of the regions that look to be most troubled from a financing standpoint. We identify eight provinces or provincial level cities that have seen their private sector debt-to-GDP ratios increase by 50 percentage points or more over the past five years, for an average increase of over 10 percentage points per year. This is a rate of buildup that is not sustainable and will likely lead to difficult
financial strains beginning this year.