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Economics
StraightTalk®
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February 2010
Productivity Divergence May Lead to Different Rates of Recovery
The sources of global growth in 2010 and beyond will primarily be located in the emerging and developing economies, and especially in developing Asia. The divergence in growth between these economies and the advanced economies is nowhere more apparent than in the estimates of productivity that indicate the increasing competitiveness of emerging and developing nations. Advanced economies will have slower growth due to structural problems, which include jobless productivity growth.
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StraightTalk is a monthly publication from the Chief Economist of The Conference Board. It provides economic research, objective analysis, and forecasts to help new economy business executives assess economic conditions impacting their markets.
Download a sample issue (828 KB).
Updated: March 10, 2010
Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where note)
| 2009 |
|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
||
IV Q* |
I Q |
II Q |
III Q |
IV Q |
I Q |
Annual |
Annual |
Annual |
|
Real GDP |
5.9 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
-2.4 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
Real Consumer Spending |
1.7 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
-0.6 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
Housing Starts mil. Units |
0.55 |
0.61 |
0.63 |
0.65 |
0.72 |
0.81 |
0.55 |
0.65 |
0.99 |
Real Capital Spending |
6.5 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
-3.2 |
-1.3 |
1.4 |
-17.7 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
Net Exports Bil. '00$ |
-347.1 |
-378.1 |
-381.5 |
-379.5 |
-377.8 |
-377.2 |
-355.4 |
-379.2 |
-389.7 |
* Actual Value
Global Economic Outlook
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2010 projects output growth for major regions of the world economy and the world as a whole for 2009, 2010, and 2011-2016, and takes into account macroeconomic as well as business dynamics such as changes in consumer and labor markets and relative costs. It is built via a wide range of instruments including The Conference Board Total Economy Database for 100-plus countries, Leading Economic Indexes for 10 countries/regions, and exclusive input about the business environment captured from The Conference Board member companies’ executives.
Published annually in the November issue of StraightTalk®, the Outlook is updated regularly online.
2000-2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011-2016 |
|||||||
|
Distribution of world output 2008 |
GDP growth (based on TED) |
Contribution to world GDP growth |
Projected GDP growth |
Contribution to world GDP growth |
Projected GDP growth |
Contribution to world GDP growth |
Projected GDP growth |
Contribution to world GDP growth |
|
US |
17.9% |
2.2 |
0.5 |
-2.4 |
-0.4 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
EU-15 |
17.6% |
1.9 |
0.4 |
-4.1 |
-0.7 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
|
Japan |
5.2% |
1.3 |
0.1 |
-5.4 |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
Other |
7.4% |
3.5 |
0.3 |
-2.4 |
-0.2 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
|
Advanced Economies |
48.1% |
2.1 |
1.2 |
-3.3 |
-1.6 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
|
China |
14.2% |
11.5 |
1.3 |
8.0 |
1.2 |
8.5 |
1.3 |
7.5 |
1.2 |
|
India |
5.0% |
7.5 |
0.3 |
6.0 |
0.3 |
7.0 |
0.4 |
8.0 |
0.5 |
|
Other developing Asia |
5.7% |
5.5 |
0.3 |
3.0 |
0.2 |
6.5 |
0.4 |
7.0 |
0.5 |
|
Latin America |
8.1% |
4.1 |
0.3 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
2.5 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
|
Middle East |
6.2% |
5.3 |
0.2 |
3.0 |
0.2 |
3.7 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
0.3 |
|
Africa |
3.0% |
5.6 |
0.1 |
3.0 |
0.1 |
4.1 |
0.1 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
|
Central & |
3.0% |
4.8 |
0.1 |
-3.5 |
-0.1 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
4.0 |
0.1 |
|
Russia and other CIS |
6.7% |
7.0 |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-0.2 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
4.6 |
0.4 |
|
Emerging Market and Developing Economies |
51.9% |
7.2 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
5.2 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
3.6 |
|
World |
100% |
4.3 |
|
0.0 |
|
3.5 |
|
4.2 |
|
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