Economic Indicators Publications

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Book

  1. Business Cycle Indicators Handbook

    June 2001 | Book

    The Business Cycle Indicators Handbook, describes in detail the series in the BCI report and database, and includes articles discussing the value and use of the cyclical indicator approach.

China Center Publications

  1. China Center Data Flash: Continued deceleration into Q2

    May 2013 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – May 2013

  2. China Center Chart of the Week: Recent jump in bank deposits likely boosted by new WMP regulations

    May 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart shows changes in the stock of outstanding deposits in China’s banking system on a monthly basis, and the total outstanding deposit growth.

  3. China Center Chart of the Week: China’s manufacturing PMI should be taken with a growing grain of salt

    May 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart shows the performance of China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) since January 2010, along with the major subcomponents. We urge members to view this index with great caution.

  4. China Center LEI Commentary: LEI growth stalled amid renewed tightening of policy measures

    April 2013 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, April 2013 (March 2013 data)

  5. China Center LEI Commentary: LEI still increasing, but the outcome will be highly policy-dependent

    March 2013 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, March 2013 (February 2013 data)

  6. China Center Data Flash: New leadership show signs of reining in risk areas

    March 2013 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – March 2013 (February 2013 data)

  7. China Center Chart of the Week: Formal bank loans - no longer the stalwart of Chinese finance

    March 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart shows newly issued net Total Social Finance in China on a quarterly basis, broken down into its constituent parts. The share of non-bank finance has grown markedly.

  8. China Center LEI Commentary: LEI boosted by the Chinese New Year

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, February 2013 (January 2012 data)

  9. China Center Chart of the Week: Do weak retail sales over the Chinese New Year holiday signal slowing consumption growth?

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart assesses the “real” (i.e. inflation adjusted to 2012 price levels) monthly Retail Sales of Consumer Goods statistic over the last 5 years, emphasizing the sales for Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday periods.

  10. China Center Quick Note: Barring the unexpected, China’s economy to downshift considerably, as a natural consequence of both size and maturation

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    In the latest update of The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook, we project that China’s trend growth rate will slow to 5.8 percent over the 2013-2018 period and fall further to 3.7 percent from 2019-2025.

  11. China Center Chart of the Week: Real household consumption increasingly hard to gauge using the monthly “Retail Sales of Consumer Goods” statistic

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart compares consumption in China as measured by the monthly “Retail Sales of Consumer Goods” statistic with the household consumption statistic derived from China’s quarterly Expenditure GDP and figures estimated by NBS’ Quarterly Household Survey

  12. China Center LEI Commentary: Slower LEI growth indicates the current rebound may be short-lived

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, January 2013 (December 2012 data)

  13. China Center Chart of the Week: Less and less growth from more and more credit

    February 2013 | China Center Publications

    This chart shows the credit intensity of Chinese economic growth in both nominal and real terms. Credit intensity refers to the ratio of new credit to incremental GDP growth in an economy, and the situation for China is becoming increasingly grim.

  14. China Center Data Flash: Fragility and uncertainty persist

    December 2012 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – December 2012 (November 2012 data)

  15. China Center LEI Commentary: Looking beyond month-to-month volatility – sustainability of current rebound not yet certain

    December 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, November 2012 (October 2012 data)

  16. China Center Chart of the Week: China’s falling returns on capital will cause slower growth or higher leverage (or both)

    December 2012 | China Center Publications

    The chart shows The Conference Board’s estimation of the Marginal Product of Capital (MPK) for various countries, broken into two groups: lower income and higher income.

  17. China Center Chart of the Week: Not so fast! Why China’s economy will continue to slow

    November 2012 | China Center Publications

    The chart shows The Conference Board’s most recent medium- and long-term projections for trend growth in real GDP for China, broken down by contributions from labor, capital and productivity.

  18. China Center Data Flash: Fragile rebound advanced in October

    November 2012 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – November 2012 (October 2012 data)

  19. China Center LEI Commentary: Increase in LEI slows, as real estate gives back gains from August

    November 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, October 2012 (September 2012 data)

  20. China Center LEI Commentary: Real estate perks up the LEI in August – but it is unlikely to last

    September 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, September 2012 (August 2012 data)

  21. China Center LEI Commentary: A pick up in infrastructure investment remains the only driver of growth, but may ultimately become a burden

    September 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, August 2012 (July 2012 data)

  22. China Center Data Flash: July disappoints – even investment growth levels off

    August 2012 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – August 2012 (July 2012 data)

  23. China Center LEI Commentary: Real economic activity remains weak – credit alone drives the LEI in June

    August 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, July 2012 (June 2012 data)

  24. China Center Data Flash: Growth stabilizes in June, but weakness remains

    July 2012 | China Center Publications

    Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release – July 2012 (June 2012 data)

  25. China Center LEI Commentary: Accelerated bank lending supports LEI expansion in May

    July 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, May 2012 data

  26. China Center LEI Commentary: LEI expands moderately, but component volatility offers little certainty

    May 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, May 2012 (April 2012 data)

  27. China Center LEI Commentary: Increased volatility will likely characterize the second quarter, just as it did the first

    April 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, April 2012 (March 2012 data)

  28. China Center LEI Commentary: Recent volatility in the LEI components underlines growing economic uncertainty

    April 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China (February 2012 data)

  29. China Center LEI Commentary: China LEI points to increasing uncertainty amidst continued gradual slowing of the economy

    March 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China (January 2012 data)

  30. China Center LEI Commentary: Moderation in growth looks set to continue, despite the slight LEI uptick in December

    January 2012 | China Center Publications

    Interpretive Comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China. (December 2011 data)

Economics Program Working Paper Series

  1. Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the United States

    December 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gad Levanon, Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, and Justyna Zabinska
    December 2011 - EPWP #11 – 06

  2. Using the Leading Credit IndexTM to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle

    December 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gad Levanon, Jean-Claude Manini, Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, and Jennelyn Tanchua
    December 2011 - EPWP #11 – 05

  3. On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China

    July 2010 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bill Adams, Pieter Bottelier, Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman, May 2010. - EPWP #10 – 02

  4. Some Recent Changes in Economic Growth, Cycles and Volatility

    January 2009 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, January 2009. - EPWP #09 – 01

  5. On the Measurement and Analysis of Aggregate Economic Activity for China: The Coincident Economic Indicators Approach

    April 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Feng Guo, Ataman Ozyildirim, Victor Zarnowitz, April 2008. - EPWP #08 – 01

  6. Persistent Business Cycles and High Economic Growth: How to Explain Their Long Concurrence in Modern Capitalism?

    December 2007 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Victor Zarnowitz, December 2007. - EPWP #07 – 03

  7. What Role for the Private Sector in Public Statistics?

    August 2004 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, August 2004. - EPWP #04 - 02

  8. Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?

    June 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim, June 2003. - EPWP #03 – 04

  9. A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators

    February 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, February 2003. - EPWP #03 - 01

  10. Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles

    December 2001 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim, December 2001. - EPWP #01 - 03

  11. Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion

    January 2001 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Victor Zarnowitz, January 2001. - EPWP #01 - 01

  12. Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely

    November 2000 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, November 2000. - EPWP #00 - 01

Economics Watch Reports

  1. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    May 2013 | Economics Watch Reports

    A recovery for the Euro Area has been delayed in part by continued weakness in business confidence. This issue also explores how prices and supplies of oil and natural gas may affect long-term growth prospects of Europe's economies.

  2. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    April 2013 | Economics Watch Reports

    High youth unemployment and long-term demographic trends are both blocking a recovery in Euro Area household consumption.

  3. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    February 2013 | Economics Watch Reports

    Recent changes in competitiveness measures for Euro Area economies provide another signal that economic outlook is improving, but weak long-term productivity growth represents important constraint on speed and strength of any recovery.

  4. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    January 2013 | Economics Watch Reports

    Results from The Conference Board CEO Challenge® survey provide a perspective on how business leaders in Europe are responding to a more stable but still challenging economic environment in the Euro Area.

  5. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    December 2012 | Economics Watch Reports

    Progress on financial integration does not result in improved outlook for Euro Area

  6. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    November 2012 | Economics Watch Reports

    Policies implemented to control the financial crisis are partially succeeding, but have not yet improved confidence or growth prospects

  7. Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

    November 2012 | Economics Watch Reports

    The financial crisis has spurred European leaders to consider hastening fiscal and regulatory integration, which has helped reduce financial instability. However, the poor performance of confidence indicators show that the Euro Area economy reamins weak.

  8. Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View

    April 2012 | Economics Watch Reports

    Despite some recent weakening in the economic data, the U.S. economy remains poised to re-accelerate in the second half of 2012. This month, we also examine shifts in global manufacturing competitiveness.

Executive Action Report

  1. Euro Area: Looking Through the Turbulence in Financial Markets

    June 2010 | Executive Action Report

    Despite the overwhelming sense of crisis in the Euro Area, recovery from the global recession is still underway.

  2. Potential Economic Impact of the 2009 A(H1N1) Influenza (Swine Flu) Pandemic

    May 2009 | Executive Action Report

    While it's too early to determine the ultimate scope of the A(H1N1) influenza pandemic, a comparison to the 2003 SARS outbreak shows the economic impact may be short-lived and will not significantly alter long-term trends in global macro economic activity

  3. A Crisis of Confidence

    January 2009 | Executive Action Report

    Despite ongoing concerns that the current economic crisis could end up resembling The Great Depression, data so far shows that this recession is in far better shape than the circumstances of 1929.

  4. Gulf Coast Hurricanes: Assessing the Economic Impact

    October 2005 | Executive Action Report

    Economic growth in the United States was already losing steam before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit. To what extent will these natural disasters impact our national economy?

  5. Context and Consequences - The U.S. Economy: 9/11 and the War on Terrorism

    October 2002 | Executive Action Report

    History shows the depth and length of the impact of 9/11 on the U.S. economy may not be as severe as many think.

Periodical

  1. Board Asia Newsletter

    September 2012 | Periodical

    Quarter Three 2012

  2. Board Asia Newsletter

    July 2012 | Periodical

    Quarter Two 2012

Research Report

  1. U.S. Salary Increase Budgets for 2010

    August 2009 | Research Report

    Salary increase budgets were hit hard in 2009. The good news for 2010 — budgets are projected to be higher. The bad news — the forecasted increase, at 3 percent, is the lowest in 25 years.

  2. North American Outlook 2002-2003

    May 2002 | Research Report

    The Conference Board’s economic forecasts for Canada, the United States, and Mexico in 2002-2003.

  3. Measuring Prices in a Dynamic Economy: Re-Examining the CPI

    October 1999 | Research Report

    Nine recommendations from a blue-ribbon panel of economists on how to improve the way that the Consumer Price Index tracks prices in our ever-evolving economy.

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