The Conference Board Economics Watch® - European View

Reduced Financial Tensions Could Accommodate a Cautious Recovery in the Euro Area

  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased slightly in May, its third small gain in the last four months
  • Business confidence indicators are continuing to improve, but are not yet strong enough to signal that contraction has ended
  • A small rise in household consumption during the first quarter is in line with signs that consumer confidence is improving
  • Raising private investment levels remains a barrier to recovery
  • Financial stability is a necessary precondition for a sustained Euro Area economic recovery, but is not sufficient
  • ECB monetary policy has not been transmitted effectively to lower private rates
  • Borrowing conditions for businesses, especially for SMEs in troubled economies, remain poor and are hindering recovery

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