- Recent data suggest the United States may skate by a recession
- However, if low consumer and business confidence drags the United States into recession, it should be short and shallow
- But growth will not rebound sharply when the downturn ends
- Sharp decline in Euro-Area LEI suggests significant possibility of a recession in Europe
- The European debt and banking crisis is concentrated in Europe, but spillover effects could affect U.S. economy
- The U.S. output gap is large and not
