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Can China's Growth Trajectory Be Sustained?

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Authors:  Pieter Bottelier, Gail D. Fosler
Publication Date:  December 2007
Report Number:  R-1410-07-RR

During the last three years and for the first time since the start of China's market reforms almost 30 years ago, the country's economy has moved toward a high growth, high investment, high production, high liquidity structure that appears to be self-reinforcing and outside of the normal administrative controls of the Chinese government. This report explores the factors that appear to be driving China's turbo growth and addresses the question of just how long this extraordinary growth can continue. It also looks at the impact that policies to reign in this export-oriented growth and promote domestic consumption will have on the business environment for multinational companies.

Topics covered include:

  • The Gathering Storm: Addressing China's Internal Imbalances
  • Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Reserves
  • China's Unique Productivity Story
  • China's Trade Surplus and Globalization 16
  • Is China's Current Turbo-Growth Model Sustainable?

 

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