Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, November 12, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia remained unchanged in September 2025 at 114.5 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.5% in August. However, over the recent six-month period from March through September 2025, the LEI increased by 1.4%, accelerating from a 0.3% growth over the previous six-month period, between September 2024 and March 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia was also unchanged in September 2025 at 118.1 (2016=100), after no change in August. But overall, the CEI grew by 0.6% between March and September 2025, a slightly lower rate of growth compared to 0.8% over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia was flat in September,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Following strong gains in the prior month, the components in the Australia LEI were little changed.  Slight positive contributions from money supply, the yield spread, gross operating surplus, and rural goods exports were offset by marginal negative contributions from share prices and building approvals. However, over the last six months, all but one component of the Australia LEI improved— only the gross operating surplus showed some weakness. Accordingly, the six-month and annual growth rates of the Australia LEI are positive, suggesting stronger economic activity ahead. Overall, the Australian economic momentum ahead remains solid, supported by easing monetary policy and moderate inflation. The Conference Board currently expects Australia’s real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025 and accelerate to 1.8% in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 12, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Australia LEI remained unchanged in September

The components of the Australia LEI were also little changed

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Yield Spread, 10Y – Policy Rate
• Share Prices, All Ordinaries S&P/ASX 200
• Money Supply, M3
• Building Approvals
• Rural Goods Exports
• Non-Farm Sector, Sale to Inventories Ratio
• Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp.

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Employment
• Household Income
• Industrial Production
• Retail Trade

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org