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StraightTalk®

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Bart van Ark
Chief Economist
December 2009
Will We Get It Right Next Time?

This month’s issue offers a perspective on this cycle’s unprecedented events that is both historical and forward looking. While there were warning signs about the current crisis, no one was able to foresee the full scale of its impact. When forecasting the future, we will need to live with uncertainties, but some concerns can at least be partly met. First, we need a better understanding of the interaction between financial and nonfinancial sectors in the economy. Second, we need to look beyond the short term to understand how financial factors relate to innovation. Third, we need to acknowledge that confidence and other noneconomic factors play an important role, particularly in times of unanticipated shocks. An important lesson from the current crisis is that economics cannot rely only on quantitative measures, but also needs to recognize and study how the human psyche reacts to challenges and opportunities.

 

StraightTalk is a monthly publication from the Chief Economist of The Conference Board. It provides economic research, objective analysis, and forecasts to help new economy business executives assess economic conditions impacting their markets.

Download a sample issue (828 KB).

 

Updated: January 13, 2010
Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where note)

2009

 

2010

 

2009

2010

2011

III Q*

IV Q

I Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

Annual

Annual

Real GDP

2.2

4.9

1.9

2.7

0.8

1.3

-2.5

2.3

1.8

Real Consumer Spending

2.8

1.7

1.2

1.7

1.4

0.9

-0.6

1.5

1.6

Housing Starts mil. Units

0.59

0.55

0.61

0.63

0.65

0.72

0.55

0.65

0.99

Real Capital Spending

-5.9

-0.7

1.3

3.6

-2.7

-1.5

-18.0

-1.0

2.9

Net Exports Bil. '00$

-357.4

-361.7

-376.0

-378.7

-375.9

-372.5

-359.0

-375.8

-385.2


* Actual Value


Global Economic Outlook

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2010 projects output growth for major regions of the world economy and the world as a whole for 2009, 2010, and 2011-2016, and takes into account macroeconomic as well as business dynamics such as changes in consumer and labor markets and relative costs. It is built via a wide range of instruments including The Conference Board Total Economy Database for 100-plus countries, Leading Economic Indexes for 10 countries/regions, and exclusive input about the business environment captured from The Conference Board member companies’ executives.

Published annually in the November issue of StraightTalk®, the Outlook is updated regularly online.

2000-2008

2009

2010

2011-2016

 

Distribution of world output 2008

GDP growth (based on TED)

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

US

17.9%

2.2

0.5

-2.4

-0.4

2.0

0.3

2.0

0.3

EU-15

17.6%

1.9

0.4

-4.1

-0.7

0.6

0.1

1.0

0.1

Japan

5.2%

1.3

0.1

-5.4

-0.3

1.5

0.1

0.5

0.0

Other

7.4%

3.5

0.3

-2.4

-0.2

2.1

0.1

1.9

0.1

Advanced Economies

48.1%

2.1

1.2

-3.3

-1.6

1.5

0.7

1.5

0.6
     

China

14.2%

11.5

1.3

8.0

1.2

8.5

1.3

7.5

1.2

India

5.0%

7.5

0.3

6.0

0.3

7.0

0.4

8.0

0.5

Other developing Asia

5.7%

5.5

0.3

3.0

0.2

6.5

0.4

7.0

0.5

Latin America

8.1%

4.1

0.3

-0.5

0.0

2.5

0.2

4.0

0.4

Middle East

6.2%

5.3

0.2

3.0

0.2

3.7

0.2

4.0

0.3

Africa

3.0%

5.6

0.1

3.0

0.1

4.1

0.1

5.0

0.2

Central &
Eastern Europe

3.0%

4.8

0.1

-3.5

-0.1

2.0

0.1

4.0

0.1

Russia and other CIS

6.7%

7.0

0.3

-3.6

-0.2

2.0

0.1

4.6

0.4

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

51.9%

7.2

3.1

2.9

1.5

5.2

2.9

5.8

3.6
     

World

100%

4.3

 

0.0

 

3.5

 

4.2

 

 

 


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