Bart van Ark
Chief Economist

As signs of a turnaround become more and more evident in the United States and Europe, the big question has become whether we are getting out of the woods more quickly than many are suggesting. Unfortunately, a rapid recovery is unlikely. Even though The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^TM has recently bounced back, constraints in income, wealth, and access to credit rule out a rapid increase in consumption. The rapid increase in U.S. savings is mainly the result of consumers paying off debt. It remains to be seen whether this trend represents a structural shift, but consumers will be watching their budgets carefully for a significant time to come.